For this project I wanted to have a closer look at consumer spending, predatorial advertising, and a more modern "lipstick index".

It's also an opportunity to showcase my ability to transform and manipulate data using python and pandas for use in tableau.

UK household spending on housing has shown resilience post-COVID, with nominal increases driven by inflation outpacing real growth. Year-over-year (YoY) growth in housing costs reflects broader inflationary pressures peaking at 3.6% in CPIH by December 2025, alongside shifts in preferences for houses over flats (about half of price growth linked to this) and temporary supply disruptions from pandemic lockdowns. Other factors include sustained demand from low interest rates early in recovery and "race for space" trends favouring suburban properties, though real spending growth slowed to 0.1% in Q2 2025 after 0.4% in Q1. Using ONS data I have noted 41.5% growth YOY from 2023-2024. Indicating we are experiancing just short of hyperinflation (Typically 50%) similar to the 70's (due to oil prices).

UK consumer spending shows gradual recovery. My data analyzes ONS data on household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE), covering categories like food, housing, transport, and recreation in current prices (CP), chained volume measures (CVM), and seasonally adjusted (SA) formats.

Real HHFCE grew 1.10% year-over-year in Q2 2025 (ending June), up from 0.80% in Q1 and reversing earlier declines, though below the long-term average of 2.47%. ONS reports modest overall growth into mid-2025, with Q2 discretionary spending up 6% year-on-year, led by experiences, while essentials like vehicles fell 5%.

Key categories in the dataset include housing (largest share), food (01), transport (07), and recreation (09), with fields for NSA/SA and indices (IDEF base 2023=100). Recent trends indicate cautious prioritization of non-essentials amid managed costs.

The lipstick effect describes how consumers, facing economic downturns or personal financial stress, shift spending from big-ticket luxuries (like holidays or designer clothes) to small, affordable indulgences such as lipstick or cosmetics. Coined by Estée Lauder's Leonard Lauder after the 2001 attacks when lipstick sales rose 11% amid recession, it signals psychological coping mechanisms—quick mood boosts and visible self-care without breaking the bank. Today it extends beyond makeup to lattes, snacks, or collectibles as modern proxies for that "treat yourself" impulse.

Short-term luxuries like coffee and collectibles exhibit a modern "lipstick effect," where affordable indulgences persist amid economic strain. ONS data indicates post-COVID shifts: out-of-home coffee sales dropped 86% during lockdowns but rebounded via online channels (up 175% in late 2020), signaling trading down from premium experiences.

Pokémon cards and Labubus show fad-driven surges, with scalpers - individuals who buy products with the intention of recouping  high resale values -  inflating resale prices e.g., Eeveelutions up to $1200, boosted by celebrity endorsers such as Rihanna, fueling collector frenzy and stock shortages.

Pokémon cards have surged back into the spotlight post-Covid, fueled by nostalgia, online marketplaces like eBay and TCGPlayer, and influencer hype on TikTok and YouTube, turning a childhood hobby into a speculative frenzy. Rare cards from early sets—like a PSA 10 Charizard from the base set, can now routinely fetch £200,000+, with some vintage holographic prints (holos) hitting absurd multiples of their original 1990s value due to professional card appraisals and celebrity collectors such as Logan Paul amplifying demand.

Scalpers and resellers turbocharge this by snapping up bulk stock from retail drops (e.g., Pokémon Center restocks), holding via bots or bulk buys, then flipping at markups on secondary markets, which drives official MSRPs even higher as retailers preempt shortages. Profiteers leverage price guides, rapid relistings, and group chats to coordinate, creating artificial scarcity that traps casual fans while funding full-time hustlers. Essentially a mini dopamine casino where resale flips yield 2-10x returns overnight, further detaching prices from fundamentals.

The chart above shows the current prices for cards on chaoscards.co.uk.

Labubu, the mischievous elf-like dolls from Pop Mart's blind-box drops, hit viral fever pitch in 2025—nostalgia for kawaii mixed with TikTok unboxings and celeb flexes like BLACKPINK's Lisa, turning £14 retail boxes into a resale mania. In my data ("LabubuSalesCleaned"), units sold and gross prices explode year-over-year from 2023–2025, with average price metrics climbing as hype peaked mid-year before restocks tanked the bubble.

Scalpers employ bots for each new retail wave, then assemble full sets (1-in-144 secret odds), and flip on StockX/Depop at 3-5x peaks. My data shows gross revenue spiking from these coordinated hauls, much like Pokémon scalpers, before prices crashed from £1,380 full sets to £600-700 by late 2025. This flips dopamine collecting into a volatile casino, where resale profits evaporate fast but keep fuelling the next fad.

Gambling participation among UK youth rose to 30% in 2025 (from 27% in 2024), with young men at 34%—driven by unregulated activities (18%) like peer bets and online schemes. Bitcoin "get rich quick" pursuits and influencers like Andrew Tate exacerbate risks, promoting materialistic views linked to higher problem gambling and suicidality in young males. ONS tracks "games of chance" spending, aligning with broader post-COVID risk-taking amid economic uncertainty.

In closing, these trends of escalating housing costs squeezing budgets, viral collectibles and coffee splurges as modern "lipstick" proxies, and surging remote gambling and crypto gambles among young men—collectively signal a profound craving for escapism amid widening wealth inequality. Economic stress amplifies dopamine-seeking through cheap digital hauls on apps like Temu or Shein, where gamified shopping challenges the traditional Lipstick Index by monopolizing "affordable luxuries." With UK omnichannel habits splitting 44% between online and in-store channels, plus "Buy Now, Pay Later" surging among youth, consumers chase fleeting highs to offset stagnant real wages and unaffordable essentials, revealing a society increasingly hooked on illusion over substance. 

Github Repo